Methodology & Data Sources
Last updated: March 30, 2026
1. Overview
Speed Signal AI scans ~1,900 US equities daily (Russell 3000) at market close (4:15 PM ET) and scores each ticker on a 0–100 scale across three pillars. Higher scores indicate higher probability of an upcoming breakout.
Our scoring system is algorithmic and rules-based. It does not use AI predictions, sentiment analysis, or subjective judgment. Every score is reproducible given the same market data.
2. The Three Pillars
Pillar 1: Base "Stealth Coil" (35 points)
Measures how tightly a stock is coiling before a potential breakout:
- Volatility Contraction — ATR% percentile rank over 252 days (tighter = higher score)
- Tightness — Range/ATR ratio shows how narrow price action is
- Squeeze Detection — Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels (compressed energy)
- Trend Quality — Stage 2 Weinstein (Close > SMA50 > SMA200)
- Pivot Proximity — Distance to resistance level
Pillar 2: Accumulation "Smart Money" (35 points)
Detects institutional accumulation before the crowd notices:
- Relative Strength Alpha — RS line vs SPY at new highs with positive slope
- Money Flow — Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) + On-Balance Volume (OBV) divergence
- Volume Dry-Up — Below-average volume during tight range = supply absorbed
- Sector Tailwind — Sector ETF strength vs SMA50
Pillar 3: Ignition "Strike" (30 points)
Identifies the actual breakout catalyst:
- Volume Impulse — Unusual volume relative to 50-day average (tiered by market cap)
- Early Ignition — Range expansion or pressure at pivot level
- Candle Quality — Body ratio, close position, up-day confirmation
3. Penalties (up to -25 points)
- Chase Protection — Extended stocks (>12% above SMA50) get penalized
- Anchor Filter — Bearish SPY regime (below SMA50 with negative slope) penalizes all stocks
- VIX Penalty — VIX > 25 indicates elevated fear
4. Status Labels
| Status | Score | Meaning |
|---|
| IGNITION | 85+ | High probability breakout candidate |
| PRE-IGNITION | 80–84 | Building toward breakout |
| NEW_WATCH | 70–79 | Showing early signs |
| COOLING | 60–69 | Losing momentum |
| BELOW | <60 | Not ready |
| FAILED_BREAKOUT | — | Price fail + volume collapse after IGNITION |
5. Eligibility Filters
Before scoring, stocks must pass:
- Price ≥ $5
- Liquidity: ADV20 × Close ≥ $15M
- Market Cap ≥ $300M
- Free Float > 30%
- Not in "dead trend" (Close < SMA200 with negative slope)
- No excessive gap down
- Earnings shield (buffers around earnings dates)
6. Data Sources
| Data Type | Source | Update Frequency |
|---|
| Price & Volume | Exchange data via TradingView | Daily at close |
| Fundamentals | FactSet via TradingView | Quarterly |
| Earnings Dates | Exchange filings | As filed |
| Market Regime | SPY, VIX, Sector ETFs | Daily |
| Company Info | syminfo (TradingView) | Static |
7. Limitations
- Scores reflect end-of-day data — intraday moves are not captured
- Historical scores may differ from live scores due to data revisions
- Earnings data availability varies by ticker
- Small-cap stocks ($300M–$2B) use wider thresholds due to different market dynamics
- The system is optimized for daily timeframe breakout detection
8. Disclaimer
This methodology description is provided for transparency and educational purposes. Scores are not investment advice or recommendations. Past performance of high-scoring stocks does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor.